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Julia Gorin

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Conservatives Are From Mars, Liberals Are From San Francisco
by Burt Prelutsky
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America Alone
by Mark Steyn
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We're watching a power play here, folks. Meanwhile, the region is preparing for a major new war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been pretty cozy up until now.

In recent years, Russia has built nuclear facilities for Iran, sold Iran hundreds of millions of dollars worth of nuclear technology, trained over a thousand Iranian nuclear scientists, run political interference for Iran at the United Nations over the nuclear issue and was due, this month, to deliver enriched uranium to Iran. But now Moscow is balking, and Tehran sounds testy. Poor Mahmoud. Not a fun way to spend the Persian New Year, fretting about how best to complete his nuclear weapons arsenal.

The Russians are claiming that Iran has failed to pay its bills for the nuclear reactor it's building at Bushehr. The Iranians say that's nonsense. They claim they are all paid up and that the Russians are just delaying -- yet again.

"It is deplorable that there has been a delay in launching the Bushehr plant," said Iran's chief nuclear negotatiator Ali Larijani, according to a report by Agence France Presse. "The Russians should keep their promises on time....According to the initial contract the plant was set to be launched on July 8, 1999. It has been delayed five times."

Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, says: "Iran has had no delay whatsoever in making payments for the Bushehr nuclear power plant."

Nevertheless, the New York Times is now reporting that: "Russia has informed Iran that it will withhold nuclear fuel for Iran's nearly completed Bushehr power plant unless Iran suspends its uranium enrichment as demanded by the United Nations Security Council, European, American and Iranian officials said. The ultimatum was delivered in Moscow last week by Igor Ivanov, Russia's Security Council Secretary, to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran's deputy chief nuclear negotiator, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a confidential diplomatic exchange between two governments was involved."

What does the Bush administration make of the sudden tensions between Russia and Iran? "We're not sure what mix of commercial and political motives are at play here," one senior Bush administration official in Washington told the New York Times. "But clearly the Russians and the Iranians are getting on each other's nerves - and that's not all bad."

The Drudge Report Monday night had a banner headline in red: "RUSSIA WARNS IRAN IT WILL WITHHOLD NUCLEAR FUEL," linked to the Times story. It is certainly an interesting development, and one that's had me curious for the last week or so. But honestly, I'm not so sure it's as dramatic as some -- including Drudge and the Times -- seem to believe.

All indications thus far have demonstrated that Putin believes Russia's strategic interests lie in developing a military and economic alliance with Iran. But Putin also wants it to be clear to Ahmadinejad -- and to the West -- who is really in charge of this relationship. Thus, while this could eventually prove to be a strategic change of direction for Russia, it is more likely a power play by the Kremlin to remind Iran, the junior partner in this emerging alliance, just who's the boss.

We'll likely have a somewhat better sense of the relationship between Putin and Ahmadinejad in the next few days. The Iranian leader has requested a visa to come to the United States, and the State Department has granted his request. Ahmadinejad wants to attend the U.N. Security Council debates in New York over whether new economic sanctions will be imposed on Iran. That should be interesting to watch.

Meanwhile, the rest of the region seems to be preparing for the next major war.

* Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah told a Beirut rally last month that Hezbollah is "completing our readiness for what is bigger and more dangerous," and that arms are being moved "to the front."

* Syria has deployed more than 1,000 missiles near Israeli border, according to IDF intelligence. "We are seeing serious preparations for a war by Syria and Hizbullah, with massive help from Iran," an Israeli military source told the World Tribune.

* What's more, Israel held a nationwide missile attack drill yesterday, and thousands of Israeli, U.S. military forces are currently testing joint defenses against missiles armed with nuclear, chemical and biological warheads in an exercise called "Juniper Cobra."

The conundrum is that even as the region prepares for war, day to day life in Israel is remarkably safe, secure, and seems as normal as ever. For those of you who have never been there, that may seem hard to believe, but it's true.

CRO

copyright 2007 - Joel Rosenberg

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