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REYNOLDS |
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Florida Gives the Republican Race Clarity
by John Mark Reynolds [author,
academic] 12/30/07
Here is an analysis based, not on what I wish was true, but believe to be true in this Presidential race.
First, McCain is the only Republican with a clear path to the nomination.
He will probably be the Republican nominee. The race in Florida was not particularly tight. McCain won by five percent (at the time of my writing).
Republicans wishing to stop McCain must act in the next week or hope for a major McCain gaffe, which is always possible for a man with McCain’s temper.
Contributor
John Mark Reynolds
John
Mark Reynolds is the founder and director of
the Torrey Honors Institute and Associate Professor
of Philosophy at Biola University.His
personal website can be found at www.johnmarkreynolds.com and
his blog can be found at http://scriptoriumdaily.com.
[go to Reynolds index] |
Even with a gaffe, the best chance of stopping him would be holding him to a plurality of the delegates at the Convention.
Even then it is likely Huckabee would cut a deal for the vice-presidential slot to give McCain the nomination at the Convention.
In the next week, we will see an avalanche of support moving to McCain from elected Republican officials looking to band wagon while their endorsement still matters. Rudy will back McCain as soon as possible.
Why?
Republicans like rallying around a winner. McCain has also shown an ability to take tough punches from the conservative establishment and talk-radio. They cannot be more opposed to him than they were in the last week. It is safe to back McCain, because none of his opponents have shown an ability or willingness to land a punch.
I have argued that he would not be the best Republican choice for president, but he is a strong general election candidate. Whether I like it or not, the situation is bad for those of us who would prefer another candidate.
The good news is that unlike any Democrat running McCain is pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, against torture, and for winning the War on Terror.
Second, Rudy was a predictable failure.
He was a good campaigner in person, a mediocre debater, with a great record as mayor of New York. His skills were wrong for the presidential race. Rudy was not running in a geographically compressed city of eight million, but in a national campaign. He did not have good skills for non-urban areas.
Rudy was running in a multi-state race where his style of campaigning did not work. He was also not running against the kind of Democrat hack that it was his fortune to face in New York City.
In the end, Rudy was always a long shot. He was never likely to be the nominee when the details of his social positions and of his life became well known. Pundits who believed otherwise were always kidding themselves.
Rudy was not going to win the Evangelicals of Iowa and South Carolina. It is difficult to see how he could have won New Hampshire given the slate of candidates: Romney, a neighboring governor, and McCain, the “president of New Hampshire.”
Third, Mike Huckabee would have been a major contender with the kind of money that either Rudy or Romney spent on the race.
He did amazingly well in both Michigan and Florida with almost no cash.
Compare his vote totals in Florida to those of Rudy who spent huge amounts of time and money there.
Huck simply did not have the cash to wage a national campaign.
Money would have allowed him to answer negative attacks and broaden his base. We will never know if he had a ceiling. We do know he had a fairly impressive basement of well over ten percent of the vote.
Next week is a complex two-person race with the chief opponent to McCain changing from state to state. In some Southern and Western states that person will be Huckabee and other states that will be Romney. This division is the one chance of stopping McCain and getting a brokered convention.
Fourth, Evangelicals will vote for a Mormon candidate.
They did it again in Florida.
Romney did not fail because of bigots in the religious right. He failed in Florida, because the Republican elected officials, especially the popular governor, supported him . . . not because of his faith. That is a good thing for the Republic and people who fear a “theocracy” from intolerant Evangelical voters need to breath more easily.
McCain made his peace with religious conservatives and so failed to unite that group against his candidacy. That was key.
Finally, much of the “conservative media establishment” has once again demonstrated that it is failing to reach the base of the party, particularly young voters.
Candidates slammed by Rush got over half the vote in his adopted home state.
McCain, Huckabee, and Paul were almost universally attacked and were outspent, but gained a majority of the vote.
I do not rejoice in this truth, but the conservative think-tanks, media centers, and pundits need to re-evaluate their educational strategies and make up.
(Bias Alert: I will vote for Mitt Romney in the California primary.) ExileStreet
copyright
2007 John Mark Reynolds
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